Window closes for Arizona homebuyers as builders plan to scale back rate buy-downs and deals

By Angela Gonzales

Homebuilders are beginning to pull back on offering incentives, which means the window for buyers to get good deals is slowly closing.

This pull-back on incentives comes at a time when mortgage rates are inching back up amid the military conflict with Iran.

It adds up to a difficult year for homebuilders, said Jim Belfiore, founder of CEO of Belfiore Analytics.

Usually, the spring selling season is blooming with home sales, but it's just not materializing, he said. Homebuilders are selling fewer than three homes a month per community, which should be higher during this time of year, Belfiore said.

Homebuilders have 4,095 inventory homes on their books in the metro, which equates to 7.7 homes per active community, Belfiore said.

"Current home shoppers would be wise to look at excess inventory in builders' communities today while homebuilders are still motivated to sell with upper-level incentives," Belfiore said.

Don Barrineau, Phoenix division president for Mattamy Homes, said he started inching back on incentives in January. The window is still open through the end of May when Mattamy's fiscal year ends, he said.

"Come June, it will be a different story, even on unfinished specs," he said. "We're gonna pull back for sure."

Mattamy exec: 'I have 16 [homes] that I want to make go away fast'

When mortgage rates started rising a few years ago, homebuilders began offering rate-buy down incentives, where they would help bring down mortgage interest rates into the 3% to 5% rates. It was an expensive proposition for homebuilders, who all felt they needed to offer it when their competitors were offering it.

"Builders have been giving away quite a bit since May 2022 when the interest rates went up," said Jim Daniel, president of RL Brown Housing Reports. "At one point or another there was gonna be some pullback."

With mortgage interest rates averaging 6.38%, homebuyers are beginning to accept the fact that they're not going to see rates in the 2% to 3% range, Barrineau said. The median new price for homes in metro Phoenix was $489,344 in February, down a bit from $492,143 in February 2025, Daniel said.

For many, home ownership remains just out of reach, challenged by the issue of affordability, said Anjela Salyer, Tucson division president for Mattamy Homes.

"We continue to remain committed to offering meaningful financing incentives that help individuals and families achieve home ownership," she said.

Barrineau said Mattamy has 69 finished homes scattered throughout metro Phoenix that he currently is offering incentives for.

"Out of those, I have 16 that I particularly want to make go away fast," he added.

Mattamy Homes has 10 active communities in metro Phoenix and is adding another three so that by June, the homebuilder will have 13 active communities in the metro, he said.

Mattamy also has eight active communities in the Tucson market, Salyer said.

Salyer recently closed on $6 million in land to build 54 homes at Mountain View Ranch and 44 homes at Stone House in the Tucson area. Home prices will range between $529,000 and $645,000 at Mountain View Ranch, but pricing is not yet available for Stone House, she said.

"We remain strongly committed to pursuing strategic land acquisitions," she said.

Even so, world events are putting a damper on the spring selling season, Barrineau said.

"It's just kind of meh," he said. "But as soon as that thing turns — you know it's gonna turn — anybody that paused will come right back out. I'm an eternal optimist or I wouldn't be a homebuilder. I'm cautiously optimistic."

Final Thoughts:
The window for buyers to take advantage of builder incentives in Arizona is starting to close, and timing matters more than ever right now. With builders scaling back rate buy-downs and deals, today’s inventory could present one of the last opportunities to secure favorable terms before the market shifts again. Even though sales have slowed, builders are still motivated—especially on move-in ready homes—which creates leverage for buyers who act quickly. If you’ve been on the fence, this is the kind of market moment where being proactive can translate into real savings and long-term value.