Real estate agent numbers plummet to decade low as industry undergoes transformation

By Andy Medici

The number of full-time real estate agents and brokers has dropped to its lowest point in more than a decade. It's part of what experts say is a long-term shift amid a changing national housing market.

In 2019, the last full year before the Covid-19 pandemic hit the United States, there were about 543,000 full-time real estate agents and brokers in the U.S., according to data gathered by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. After a slight dip in 2020, there were 524,000 brokers and agents in 2021 and 512,000 in 2022.

In 2023, that number dropped to 440,000, then to 398,000 in 2024.

The last time the number of full-time agents and brokers was that low was in 2013, according to the Federal Reserve data. During the height of the housing boom in the run-up to the financial crisis, the total number of agents and brokers was about 504,000.

Experts agree a variety of factors is contributing to the decline, including a housing-market cooldown since Covid-19, the rapid advancement of technology and, to some extent, a wave of class-action lawsuits against the real estate industry's biggest brokers and its biggest trade group, the National Association of Realtors.

A $418 million NAR settlement in March 2024 came in response to a wave of class-action lawsuits in which plaintiffs charged the NAR’s “participation rule” and “cooperative compensation” practices unfairly forced home sellers to pay inflated commissions to buyer agents. Plaintiffs argued a complex network of rules kept buyer-broker commissions high and essentially mandated the seller offer buyer commissions.

The NAR, as part of its settlement, agreed to a series of internal changes that took effect in August. Those steps include sellers no longer being able to make offers of buyer-broker commissions on any Multiple Listing Service the NAR owns, although they can still make commission offers on other websites and through negotiations.

"The real estate industry is undergoing a transformation, and we are seeing a natural correction in agent numbers post-NAR settlement and in response to shifting market conditions," said Kevelyn Guzman, regional vice president at Coldwell Banker Warburg in New York, in an email. "The days of transactional agents who rely on outdated methods are fading."

She said the future for real estate agents will require adaptation and specialization. That means leveraging technology to enhance their roles as trusted advisors, including artificial-intelligence-driven lead generation and automated transaction management.

That doesn't mean buyers and sellers want to replace the human element, she said.

"Buyers and sellers still want an expert who understands local nuances, negotiates effectively and provides strategic guidance," Guzman said. "The future agent will need to be more data-savvy, proactive and relationship-driven than ever before."

But the days where agents open doors for buyers and collect commission checks are over, said Brett Johnson, real estate agent and owner of Greenwood Village, Colorado-based New Era Home Buyers. Buyers are now asking what they get in return for their commission, and agents need to show they can offer profound local knowledge, negotiation skills and an understanding of financing.

Agents will need to be able to analyze market trends, structure deals creatively and offer insight that tech alone cannot provide, he added. 

“I believe that the number of agents is going to continue to decrease — in particular, part-time agents," Johnson said. "The NAR settlement didn’t kill the business, but it caused agents to earn their commission in ways many never had to previously."

Meanwhile, the overall share of buyers agent commissions has shifted — but not by much. Data from real estate firm Redfin Corp. indicates the average buyers' agent commission was 2.37% for homes sold in the fourth quarter, largely unchanged from 2.36% in the third quarter but down from 2.45% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Agents' role in a rapidly changing housing market

One pressure shaping the industry is the amount of access to information buyers and sellers now have, said Nick Boniakowski, head of agent partnerships at San Francisco-based online real estate company Opendoor. Automated tools can now offer insights into home values and neighborhoods, and even help with negotiations. 

“But that doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll magically be easier to make a decision, sell the home you grew up in or move across the country to a new town," Boniakowski said. "The transaction may get simpler and more efficient, but the overall experience may feel really similar because it’s not the paperwork that stands out, it’s the emotions."

Ultimately, the value of an agent, he said, is not in writing a contract or checking comparable sales — tasks that will continue to be automated — but in being a trusted advisor and consultant.

The housing market has taken several turns in recent years, putting pressure on buyers, sellers and agents alike.

One of the market's biggest challenges has been limited inventory that has only recently begun to loosen, although it's still well below historic norms. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates in 2022, and to keep them relatively high since, has put mortgage rates around 7%, which have driven up monthly housing costs and sidelined potential buyers.

Existing homeowners, meanwhile, are reluctant to list their homes and give up their low-interest mortgages.

In the second quarter of 2020, the median sale price for homes sold in the United States was $317,100, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve. By the second quarter of 2022, that number was $437,700, up 38%. It dropped to $419,200 in the fourth quarter of 2024, but that's still up 32% from the early days of the pandemic nearly five years ago.

According to a recent survey by Clever Real Estate, just 21% of millennials believe their generation can afford a home, a substantial decline from the 52% who said the same in early 2024. Additionally, 96% of respondents said they have concerns about purchasing a home, with 44% saying they're worried about finding an affordable home — up from 35% in 2024.

Final Thoughts:
The real estate industry is evolving, and with it, the role of agents is shifting dramatically. The days of easy commissions are gone, replaced by an era where expertise, technology, and strategic advising set top professionals apart. Buyers and sellers still value human insight, but they now expect agents to deliver market knowledge, negotiation skills, and tech-driven efficiencies. As the industry adapts to post-NAR settlement changes and a shifting housing market, one thing remains clear—only the most prepared and proactive agents will thrive in the years ahead.