Here's the latest sign that the US housing market has frozen over

By Samuel O'Brient

On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors released a new report showing that pending home sales in the US decreased 0.8% from May to June. Year-over-year pending sales dropped 2.8%.

The trade association's Pending Home Sales Index (PHS) measures housing contract activity, based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops.

The decline in June isn't for lack of inventory to lure prospective buyers. On the contrary, the number of houses listed for sale has increased, even as a growing number of sellers opt to delist their homes from the market rather than accept a lower price.

In a tough twist for buyers, the rise in supply has done nothing to bring down home prices, which hit an all-time high last month.

The steady rise in prices continues a painful trend for buyers. As NAR deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz stated, "buyers have been pushed to the sidelines for two and a half years, waiting for a reprieve in affordability."

Conditions have been particularly tough for first-time buyers, many of whom are younger. An increasing number of Generation Z members say that they see renting as a better than owning amid high prices and elevated mortgage rates.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun addressed the implications of declining pending home sales, stating that "the data shows a continuation of small declines in contract signings despite inventory in the market increasing."

That said, pending home sales didn't fall in every part of the US. In the Northeast, they slightly increased, rising 2% from the previous month. However, they declined in all other major regions, falling almost 4% in the West, 0.8% in the Midwest, and 0.7% in the South.

So far, the only winners of the current housing market have been homeowners in no rush to sell, who have seen the value of their properties increase significantly in the years since the pandemic.

Final Thoughts / Takeaways:

The latest dip in pending home sales highlights a paradox in today’s market: more listings, but fewer contracts. Buyers are still struggling with record-high prices and elevated mortgage rates, while many sellers are unwilling to adjust asking prices. For now, the market remains frozen, favoring homeowners holding onto equity rather than those trying to enter or move within it. Regional shifts show some resilience in the Northeast, but broader national trends continue to signal a prolonged affordability crisis—especially for first-time and younger buyers.